The Market Is Quietly Tightening

The Association's July stats are out. A few things shifted from June, and the shift is worth paying attention to.

Here's what stood out in July:

Active listings down 14.3%. New listings down 16.6%. Single-family benchmark firming to $1,072,400, up 2.3% over last year. Townhome sales up 14.8%. Condo sales down 7% after a strong June.

The headline is inventory. There's meaningfully less on the market than a year ago, and fewer new listings coming on to replace it. At the same time prices are holding and even ticking up. Last month I called the market "sorting." This month it looks more like it's quietly tightening.

The mix also moved. Condos cooled off after leading in June, and townhomes picked up the pace. Single-family held steady and firmed on price. So the segment that's moving is not the same one it was 30 days ago, which is worth knowing if you're watching a specific type.

Here's where I think the opportunity is, and it looks a little different depending on where you sit.

If you're buying

This is the "before it turns" window. Inventory is dropping and prices are firming, not falling. Waiting for a lower number is betting against a market that's tightening. If you were going to move in the next year anyway, getting in ahead of that has merit.

If you're selling

Fewer active listings means less competition for a buyer's attention. You are not fighting a wall of inventory to get seen, which is a real advantage that does not show up in the price numbers.

If you're doing both

Selling and buying in the same market might be the calmest window of the three. Low competition on your sale, no frenzy on your purchase, and because you are on both sides of the same market, which way prices move mostly washes out. If a move up has been on your mind, this is a smoother time to make it than most.

If you're trying to sort out what this means for your situation specifically, that's the part I like best. Reach out and tell me what you're weighing.